China's New Aircraft Carrier "Liaoning" docked in Dalian Harbour

Agni-V launched under NATO pressure: China

Continuing its tirade against the successful launch of Agni-V, Chinese state media accused New Delhi of buckling under NATO pressure to cut down the missile's range from 9000 km to 5000 km.

The state-run Global Times which derided the missile even before it was launched saying

that Chinese nuclear power is "stronger and more reliable and India had no chance" to catch up said on Sunday in yet another scathing write-up that "India has little to celebrate" as China has raced ahead and outclassed India in development.

"The Manmohan Singh government, because of pressure from NATO member countries, has kept a slow pace with their Integrated Guided Missile Programme (IGMP).

"The Agni-V is deemed to be in its final stage, whereas in fact the IGMP ought to have progressed to develop a range of 9,000 km," it said in the write-up posted on its web edition on Sunday night.

Commenting on Sino-India relations, the paper pointed to an international effort to portray India and China as enemies and said the two countries need to make bridges of friendship that would fail such an effort.

"Althought there is an international effort to paint India and China as enemies and to make the two countries go to war with each other, such an effort will fail.

"The Chinese and Indian people share a long history and culture, and what is needed is more discussion between the two about their economics, education, tourism and culture. We must create so many bridges of friendship that the plans of other countries to make China and India into enemies will fail," it said.

The paper said India and China can together make the Asian continent strong but if divided "all of Asia will remain weak".

The paper said the celebrations over the missile "conceal the inadequacies and slow pace" of the programme, and "hide the fact that successive Indian governments have capitulated to pressure from NATO to restrict the range and power of their launch vehicles", it said.

It said India was embarrassingly behind China in its space programme and also faced a huge vulnerability as over 80 per cent of its critical weapons systems are imported from France, the US, Russia and Israel.

"If these countries cut off supplies or ammunition during a conflict, India would be helpless," it said.

Coming soon: e-bomb to 'numb' enemy

In the not too distant future, Indian armed forces would be equipped with "e-bomb", courtesy Terminal Ballistic and Research Laboratory (TBRL), one of the top defence research and development laboratories in the country.

Stated to be most lethal weapon after nuclear bombs, the TBRL is expected to finish the R&D work on the project within the 12th plan period.

Located on the outskirts of Chandigarh, the lone ballistic laboratory of Defence Research and Development Organisation ( DRDO), TBRL has developed the technology and is working on a weapon, which would be capable of neutralising the command, control and communication systems of the enemy. Confirming the development, TBRL director Dr Manjit Singh told TOI that such weapon would be capable of causing huge destruction, without affecting humans.

"It would be equally capable of damaging the communication system and other technologies ensuring maximum and sudden setback to the enemy," Singh added.

He said that the technology of 'e-bomb' or 'electromagnetic bomb' would be based on explosive-driven high-energy pulse power technology and can be deployed against enemy's other establishments like civil utility networks and power generation networks, to name a few.

A P S Sodhi, senior scientist of TBRL working on the project, said that to develop electromagnetic bombs, they are using explosive-driven high-energy pulse power technology, which can produce a pulse current of peak value 1.4 mega ampere from chemical energy released by 2.8 kg of high explosives.

The information about the 'e-bomb' was shared by TBRL scientists on Monday on the sidelines of a gathering called to apprise about an international conference which the organization is holding from November 10 to 12 at its field laboratory in Ramgarh near Panchkula. Leading global experts from India, USA, Israel UK, Russia, Germany, Australia, Ukraine, Czech Republic and Poland, among other countries, who will be sharing their expertise and knowledge on the latest technologies now in use in the world as well as the latest trends in research on a host of sensitive subjects.

The conference has been organised by High Energy Materials Society of India (HEMSI) with a view to help in strengthening country's defence, space and internal security system.

Credibility of Indian Navy

In 1962, as tension began to mount, with an increase in Chinese Army intrusions on the Indo-China border, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, before embarking on a flight abroad reportedly told the media that he had 'ordered the (ill-equipped and ill-prepared) Indian Army to throw the Chinese out'. These famous last words led to independent India’s first and only disastrous military defeat. History now appears to be repeating itself.

In July 2011, a Chinese warship confronted an Indian navy ship Airavat shortly after it left a Vietnamese port in the South China Sea. The unidentified Chinese warship demanded that INS Airavat, an amphibious assault ship, identify itself and explain its presence in what it said were Chinese waters, shortly after it completed a scheduled port call in Vietnam. This incident indicates that Indo-China rivalry is now moving to the oceans, much earlier than anticipated.

India’s ministry of external affairs (MEA) has acted with unusual alacrity in two important areas — agreeing to train the Afghan Army, while also going ahead with the ONGC’s plan for oil exploration in the Vietnamese Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea, which China claims as its own waters. The MEA and the ministry of defence (MoD) should have been advised by the Indian Navy on the inadequate force levels available to deal with the emerging scenarios in the Indian Ocean region and the Asia Pacific region. The MEA and the MoD must be aware of the dozens of Chinese incursions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

India has given repeated explanations that frequent Chinese air and land incursions are due to 'perceptional differences' over the contested LAC. This has further emboldened China, which respects only a combination of military, diplomatic and economic power. In pure strategic terms there is nothing wrong with India “training the Afghan military” and also exploring for oil and minerals there. But it should first ensure that the Indian Army gets the money to buy critically needed artillery guns, improve border roads and induct additional troops needed to man the Indo-China LAC.

Similarly, on the maritime front, there is nothing wrong with the ONGC Videsh Ltd, exploring for oil in the South China Sea, or 'mandating' the Indian Navy to provide security to the island nations of the Indian Ocean region provided the Indian Navy gets the additional forces. Even the powerful US Navy has been treading with caution in the Asia Pacific region, given China’s huge deployable air and sea power. What will India do if the ONGC exploratory rig is 'blown up' by an unexplained explosion in the South China Sea in a repeat of the 2010 'Cheonan' incident, where a North Korean submarine sank a South Korean warship in the Yellow Sea, but nothing could be done despite 'available proof'?

To put things in perspective, the Indian Navy currently has sufficient forces to tackle piracy, counter maritime terror and meet its coastal security needs. To provide a sustained 'credible' presence by a single aircraft carrier battle group in the Asia Pacific Region, the Indian Navy will need to create a dedicated “APR Maritime Task Force” and a “logistics base” in Vietnam. Raising and equipping an 'APR Maritime Task Force' will need time and billions of dollars. The Indian Navy will need more capability in the Indian Ocean region to counter the inevitable sustained Chinese Navy presence by 2030. In simple terms, to meet its 'emerging tasks' the Indian Navy will need to double its size and quadruple its existing annual budget.

While aircraft carriers are definitely needed in some scenarios, some other interim, 'cost effective' options need to be put on the table, or else India will go bankrupt in trying to meet its new strategic challenges. These measures include exporting MTCR compliant Brahmos (290-km range) anti-ship cruise missiles and Prithvi-2 (250-km range) ballastic land attack missiles to Vietnam, South Korea and possibly Taiwan. The Navy’s aging and depleting conventional submarine force, under prolonged 'benign neglect' needs to be bolstered by ordering a second conventional submarine indigenous production line under the much-delayed Project 75(I).

Also, an additional four conventional submarines and four nuclear attack submarines need to be imported, so that at least one of them is on patrol in the Asia Pacific region and Indian Ocean region at any given time, to provide 'invisible' presence-cum-deterrence, without the need for a logistics base for warships and aircraft, given the long endurance of submarines. This “invisible” submarine presence would avoid incidents at the South China Sea. These same submarines could also be used in wartime to interdict Chinese shipping using the Indian Ocean region choke points and complement the Indian aircraft-carrier battle groups.

Boosting India’s sea power is essential to meet the emerging challenges in the Indian Ocean region and Asia Pacific region. Another innovative option would be to use some of our numerous island territories as 'unsinkable aircraft carriers' with the Indian Navy and the Indian Air Force aircraft, coastal radars and coastal Brahmos anti-ship missile batteries. Indian land and air power, too, needs a boost to deter any misadventures by our adversaries on our land borders.

Diplomatically, India is making the right moves with Vietnam, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Burma, Iran and other island nations. It must, however, avoid a strategic overreach, keeping in mind the prevailing military balance. India needs to remember what Prussian king Fredrick the Great meant when he said: 'Diplomacy without military power is like music without instruments'.

Our policymakers could make a start by reading Kautilya’s 2000-year-old Arthashastra and investing wisely, and quietly, in strategic national defence, which will be an insurance against war.

India set to sign $2.4bn Mirage deal with France

Faced with a dual threat from China and Pakistan, which have even come together to manufacture fighter jets , India is really cranking up military aviation contracts. Even as the $4.1 billion deal for 10 American C-17 Globemaster-III strategic airlift aircraft awaits the final nod from the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), another major contract is now headed that way.

Defence ministry sources on Wednesday said the long-awaited deal with France for the upgrade of 52 Mirage-2000 multi-role fighters in IAF's combat fleet is "finally ready" at a cost of almost Rs 11,000 crore ($2.4 billion).

"This is also now going to CCS for approval. Another big contract, which was being progressed simultaneously, for around 450 MICA (interception and aerial combat missiles) systems to arm the upgraded Mirages is also in the final stages now," said a source.

This comes after long-drawn negotiations with French companies Dassault Aviation (aircraft manufacturer), Thales (weapons systems integrator) and MBDA (missile supplier), which were "initially asking for much more", said sources.

Under the contract, the first four to six Mirages will be upgraded in France, while the rest will be retrofitted in India by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) with transfer of technology from the French companies.

This means the overall Mirage upgrade package, including the fire-and-forget MICA missiles and the infrastructure build-up at HAL, will eventually cross the Rs 15,000-crore mark.

It obviously raises questions whether it would be more prudent to simply buy new fighters rather than upgrade older ones at such a huge cost. IAF, however, argues the "retrofitted" Mirages -- with new avionics, radars, mission computers, glass cockpits, helmet-mounted displays, electronic warfare suites, weapon delivery and precision-targeting systems -- would remain "top-notch fighters" for almost two decades more.

With a depleting number of fighter squadrons (each has 16 to 18 jets), down to just 32 from a `sanctioned strength' of 39.5, IAF is going for a mix of upgrades and new inductions to stem its fast-eroding combat edge over even Pakistan.

There is, for instance, the ongoing upgrade of 63 MiG-29s under a $964 million deal inked with Russia in March 2008. Then, India is also progressively inducting the 272 Sukhoi-30MKIs contracted from Russia for around $12 billion. Moreover, the first lot of the around 120 indigenous Tejas Light Combat Aircraft will begin joining the force from end-2013 onwards.

India also wants to ink by December this year the $10.4 billion project for 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA), in which only the French Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoons are now left in contention after ejection of the American, Russian and Swedish jets.

On top of this all, India hopes to begin inducting 250-300 advanced stealth fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA), being co-developed with Russia, from 2020 onwards, in what will be its biggest-ever defence project at around $35 billion.

Eye on China, Navy boosts Eastern Command

With an eye on China as well as in keeping with India's "Look East" policy, the Navy is slowly but surely bolstering force levels on the eastern coast with new warships, aircraft and spy drones as well as forward-operating bases (FOBs).

So much so that the Navy has now upgraded the post of the chief of staff (CoS) at the Eastern Naval Command (ENC), which is next only to the flag officer commanding-in-chief, to a three-star general rank. Vice-Admiral S Lanba will take over as the new CoS at ENC on May 1, 2011. The other full-fledged naval operational command, the Western Naval Command (WNC) based at Mumbai, has had a vice-admiral as the CoS for quite some time now.

Additions to the ENC, which has around 50 warships at present, include the new indigenously-manufactured stealth frigate INS Shivalik, which is packed with weapons and sensors, and the 16,900-tonne INS Jalashwa, the huge strategic sea-lift amphibious warship second only to aircraft carrier INS Viraat in size.

"The next two indigenous stealth frigates being built at Mazagon Docks, INS Satpura and INS Sahyadri, which should be commissioned by 2012, will also be based in ENC. Tuticorin and Paradeep are being developed as FOB and OTR (operational turn-around) bases," said a source.

Then, the new fleet tanker, INS Shakti, which should come to India from Italy by September, and the P-8I Poseidon long-range maritime patrol aircraft will also be based in ENC. India is acquiring 12 P-8I aircraft, the first of which is slated for induction by early-2013, from the US for over $3 billion to plug the existing gaps in its surveillance of the entire Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

While these aircraft will be based in Rajali, Navy is also going to deploy spy drones or UAVs at the Parundu air station in Tamil Nadu. At present, Navy has two UAV squadrons based at Kochi and Porbandar, with Parundu and Port Blair next on the agenda. As part of Navy's three-tier aerial surveillance grid for IOR, the drones are already being used for the innermost layer reconnaissance up to 200 nautical miles.

Source : Times of India, 08/04/2011.

ड्रॅगनचा पंजा श्रीलंकेत

शशिकांत पित्रे
शनीवार, ऑगस्ट ०७, २०१०, सकाळ.

भारताच्या श्रीलंकेतील प्रभावाला ग्रहण लावण्याचा चीनचा खटाटोप चालू आहे. श्रीलंकेचे अध्यक्ष राजपक्षे काहीही म्हणत असले, तरी भारताला सावध राहणे आवश्‍यक आहे. कारण मदतीच्या नावाखाली श्रीलंकेला मिंधे बनविण्याचा चीनचा डाव आहे.

श्रीलंकेमधील चीनच्या वाढत्या स्वारस्याची आणि लक्षणीय सहभागाची भारताला दखल घेणे दिवसेंदिवस अधिकाधिक आवश्‍यक होत आहे. सर्वांत जास्त बोलबाला आहे, तो दक्षिण श्रीलंकेतील हंबनतोटामध्ये चीनच्या मदतीने बांधल्या जाणाऱ्या बंदराबाबत; परंतु हा केवळ हिमखंडाचा पाण्यावर दिसणारा भाग. याशिवाय अनेक प्रकल्प हाती घेऊन लंकेला मिंधे बनवण्याचा चाणाक्ष डाव चीन खेळत आहे.

हंबनतोटा बंदराच्या प्रकल्पासाठी १ बिलियन (४५०० कोटी)ची अर्थराशी तीन टप्प्यात लागणार आहे. त्यापैकी ३५० कोटी डॉलर खर्च करून पहिला टप्पा या वर्षाच्या अखेरीस पूर्ण होणार आहे. यात चीनचा ८०% सहभाग आहे. हा संपूर्ण प्रकल्प २०२३ पर्यंत पूर्ण होणार आहे. चीनच्या मदतीनेच बांधल्या जाणाऱ्या पाकिस्तानमधील ग्वादर बंदराचा पहिला टप्पा नुकताच पूर्ण झाला आहे. बलुचिस्तानमधील संभाव्य अराजकामुळे जर त्या बंदराचा उपयोग करण्याच्या चीनच्या कारस्थानात अडथळा आला तर हंबनतोटा हा पर्याय चिनी नौदलासाठी उपलब्ध होईल. त्याबरोबरच म्यानमारमधील आराकान समुद्रतटावरील क्‍याप्यू बंदराची बांधणी मागच्या वर्षापासून चीन करत आहे. हिंद महासागरामधील या तीन बंदरांकरवी भारताच्या वर्चस्वाला शह देण्याचा चीनचा प्रयत्न आहे. त्यामुळे हंबनतोटा प्रकल्प हाती घेण्यात चीनचा उद्देश केवळ व्यापारावर आधारित नसून रणनीतीचा तो एक भाग आहे.

२००६ पासून चीनने श्रीलंकेला जवळजवळ तीन बिलियन डॉलरची आर्थिक मदत केली आहे. कट्टनायके एक्‍सप्रेसवे, मतारा-कातारागामा रेल्वेमार्ग, नरोच्छोलाई पॉवर प्रोजेक्‍ट आणि कोलंबोमध्ये विविधकला प्रोत्साहनासाठी एक भव्य इमारत अशा वेगवेगळ्या क्षेत्रांत चीनने पैसा ओतला आहे. विशेष म्हणजे भारताने देऊ केलेल्या कर्जापेक्षा चीन देत असलेल्या अर्थराशीवर अधिक व्याजदर वसूल करत असूनही श्रीलंका सरकार याबद्दल फारशी तक्रार करताना दिसत नाही. त्याचे एक कारण म्हणजे चीन कर्जाच्या विनिमयावर कोणत्याही अटी लादत नाही.

भारताची श्रीलंकेवरील पकड ढिली करण्यासाठी चीन पराकाष्ठा करत आहे, हे स्पष्ट दिसून येत आहे. श्रीलंकेचे राष्ट्राध्यक्ष महिंदा राजापक्षे यांनी भारताला नुकतीच भेट दिली आणि भारताबरोबर सहा वेगवेगळ्या करारांवर हस्ताक्षर केले. अगदी बरोबर त्याच वेळी चीनचे उपपंतप्रधान मंत्री झॅंगा देजिआंग यांनी तीस प्रतिनिधींच्या मंडळासमवेत श्रीलंकेला भेट दिली. उपपंतप्रधानांनी श्रीलंकेच्या पंतप्रधानांसमवेत सहा करारांवर सह्या केल्या. त्यातील एक हंबनतोटा बंदराच्या दुसऱ्या टप्प्याबाबत होते. चीनी उपपंतप्रधानांच्या भेटीच्या वेळीचे औचित्य डोळ्यांत भरल्याशिवाय राहात नाही.

विशेष म्हणजे श्रीलंकेच्या तमिळप्रधान उत्तर आणि पूर्वभागात चीन फाजील स्वारस्य दाखवत आहे. तसं म्हणायचं झालं तर चिनी राजदूत जिआंग यांनी २००२ मध्ये शस्त्रबंदी झाल्यावर स्वतः जातीने जाऊन तमीळ नेते थमिसेल्वन यांची किलिनोची मध्ये भेट घेतली होती. त्यानंतर जाफन्याची वारी करून उत्तर श्रीलंकेला घवघवीत मदत करण्याचे आश्‍वासन दिले होते. जाफना द्विपकल्पातील जाफन्याशी कंकेसनतुराई, पलाली, मनिपाय, पॉइंट पेड्रो वगैरे अनेक उपनगरांना जोडणारे रस्ते चीनने बांधले. त्याशिवाय जाफन्यातील विद्युत आणि जलव्यवस्थेत सुधारणा घडवून आणण्यासाठी हातभार लावण्याचा मनोदय चीनने प्रकट केला आहे.

जाफन्यामधील चीन दाखवत असलेली आस्था ही सध्या तिथे काही घटकांमध्ये भारताने टायगर्सकडे फिरवलेल्या पाठीमुळे निर्माण झालेल्या अढीचा गैरफायदा घेण्यासाठी आहे, असा निष्कर्ष काढणे चुकीचे होणार नाही. म्हणूनच की काय तमीळ टायगर्सची वेबसाइट- तमीळ नेटवर नुकतीच चिनी औदार्याचे स्वागत करणारी विधाने प्रसृत केली जात आहेत.

टायगरांचा नायनाट झाल्यावर उत्तर आणि पूर्व श्रीलंकेत पुनर्बांधणीच्या कामात भारत सिंहाचा वाटा उचलत आहे. वावूनिया- जाफना आणि वावूनिया- मन्नार या रेल्वेरूळांचा प्रकल्प हाती घेण्यासाठी इर्कान ही भारतीय संस्था प्रयत्नशील आहे; परंतु चीन हे काम आपल्याला मिळावे म्हणून पडद्याआड सूत्रे हलवत असल्याच्या बातम्या मिळत आहेत. थोडक्‍यात, भारताच्या श्रीलंकेतील प्रस्तावाला जमेल तितके ग्रहण लावण्याचे चीनचे धोरण आहे. राजपक्षे वारंवार सांगतात, "चीन येईल आणि जाईल, पण भारत आमचा कायमचा मित्र राहील.' परंतु, यावर किती विश्‍वास ठेवावा, हे भारतानेच ठरवले पाहिजे.

US missile launch crew falls asleep

The Incident Comes On The Heels Of A Series Of Missteps By The Air Force

Washington: Three ballistic missile crew members in North Dakota fell asleep while holding classified launch code devices this month, triggering an investigation by military and National Security Agency experts, the Air Force said on Thursday.
The probe found that the missile launch codes were outdated and remained
secure at all times. But the July 12 incident comes on the heels of a series of missteps by the Air Force that had already put the service under intense scrutiny. “This was just a procedural violation that we investigated,” said Air Force Col. Dewey Ford, a spokesman at Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado Springs, Colo. “We determined that there was no compromise.”
The lapse, which involved a crew based at Minot Air Force Base, was serious enough, however, to prompt an investigation by the 91st Missile Wing, in conjunction with codes experts at the 20th Air Force, US strategic command and the national security agency.
And it delivers another blow to the beleaguered Air Force. Last month, defence secretary Robert Gates announced a sweeping shake-up of the Air Force leadership, blaming them for failing to fully address a series of nuclear-related mishaps. At the time, Gates said his decisions to sack the Air Force secretary and chief of staff were
based mainly on the blistering conclusions of an internal report
on the mistaken shipment to Taiwan of
four Air Force
fusing devices for ballistic missile nuclear warheads. He also linked the underlying causes of that slip-up to the August incident in which a B-52 bomber was mistakenly armed with six nuclear warheads and flown from Minot Air Force Base to Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana.
No one has been punished yet in the latest Minot incident involving sleeping crew members. A continuing review by Minot commanders will determine what, if any, actions will be taken against them. Ford and other Air Force officials said the Minot-based crew had code devices that were no longer useable, since new codes had been installed in the missiles.
The three crew members, who are in the 91st Missile Wing, were in the missile alert facility about 70 miles from Minot. That facility includes crew rest areas and sits above the underground control centre where the actual keys can be turned to launch the ballistic missiles.
Officials said the three officers were behind locked doors and had with them the old code components, which are large classified devices that allow the crew to communicate with the missiles. Launch codes are part of the component, and the devices were described as large, metal boxes. Ford said they were waiting to get back to base “and they fell asleep.”
It is not clear how long they were asleep.
There are periodic, regularly scheduled code changes, and there was a crew of four on duty. One of the crew members was not in the room with the other three at the time they fell asleep, the Air Force said. The investigation concluded that the codes had remained secured in their containers, which have combination locks that can only be opened by the crew. The containers remained with the crew at all time, and the facility is guarded by armed security forces.
Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., called the series of nuclear missteps involving Minot Air Force Base disappointing and unfortunate. “This appears to me to be an incident in which codes were not compromised but some rules were broken, and those broken rules were reported,” Dorgan said. “This does not appear to me to be equal to flying an airplane loaded with nuclear weapons halfway across the county — that was extraordinarily serious. AP

INS Jalashwa joins eastern command fleet

INS Jalashwa, the latest induction into the Indian Navy, arrived at Visakhapatnam on PM 12 Sep 07 after being commissioned at Norfolk, USA on 22 Jun 07. ‘Jalashwa’, (a Sanskrit name of the Hippopotamus), with its Motto ‘The Fearless Pioneers’, is an amphibious assault ship that can embark, transport and land various elements of an amphibious force to support operations ashore. This is the 1st ship to be transferred from the US besides being the 1st Landing Platform Dock (LPD) to be acquired by the Navy.

The second largest ship in the Navy’s inventory, INS Jalashwa is equipped with a Landing Craft Mechanized (LCM-8) along with Seaking helicopters, Radars and rapid firing guns to undertake amphibious operations, Maritime surveillance, Special operations, Search and Rescue, Medical support and also Humanitarian relief.

The specialty of this ship is the ‘Well Deck’ housing the LCM-8 which can be launched by flooding the ‘Well deck’ and operating the hinged gate at the rear end of the ship. The ship’s cargo space enhances the equipment carrying capability.

Unlike regular warships, this ship has a flight deck for helicopter operations from which four medium helicopters can operate simultaneously. This deck can also be used to operate vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) aircraft like the Sea Harrier, in special circumstances.

Since the ship is capable of embarking over 1000 troops, she is fully equipped with extensive medical facilities including four Operation Theatres, 12-bed ward, Laboratory and a Dental centre to ensure the health care of the embarked personnel.

INS Jalashwa is commanded by Captain BS Ahluwalia, a helicopter pilot and manned by a crew of about 27 Officers and 380 sailors. With a length of about 175 metres and width of 32 metres, the ship is capable of doing speeds of 20 Knots.

On arrival at Visakhapatnam, the ship was accorded a warm reception by senior officers of the Command and families of the crew. The Navy Band was in attendance. INS Jalashwa will now form part of the Eastern Fleet under the Eastern Naval Command.

Russia tests giant fuel-air bomb

The Russian air force has tested a giant fuel-air bomb which the military says is the biggest non-nuclear explosive device in the world. Russian TV showed a Tupolev bomber dropping the bomb over a test range, a powerful explosion and a four-storey building reduced to rubble. Claims it is bigger than the Moab, a US device of similar destructive power, seem plausible, analysts say. Such bombs are mainly designed to destroy underground targets.

Fuel-air bombs, technically known as thermobaric devices, generally detonate in two stages: a small blast creates a cloud of explosive material, which is then ignited with devastating effect. The name Moab officially stands for Massive Ordnance Air Burst but has unofficially been interpreted as Mother Of All Bombs. The Russian bomb, which has no known official name, has been dubbed Father of All Bombs by its designers, Russia's Channel One News says in its report.

It contains about seven tons of high explosives compared with more than eight for the Moab but is four times more powerful because it uses a new type of explosives developed with the use of nanotechnology, according to the channel. "Test results of the new airborne weapon have shown that its efficiency and power is commensurate with a nuclear weapon," Gen Alexander Rukshin, Russian deputy armed forces chief of staff, told the channel. It has, he says, "no match in the world".

Psychological value



Robert Hewson, editor of Jane's Air-launched Weapons, believes that the Russian claims are plausible given the country's track record in developing, and using, fuel-air devices. It is believed the bomb has not been used in action "I think the likelihood is that this is the world's biggest non-nuclear bomb," he told the BBC News website. "You can argue about the numbers and how you scale this but the Russians have a long and proven history of developing weapons in the thermobaric class."

Russia used such weapons in Afghanistan and Chechnya, Hewson says, and he suspects that the bomb shown on TV was conceived for the Chechen conflict but never actually used because of the sheer scale of the destruction it could wreak. He believes that the test blast was a "statement" by Russia comparable in its psychological effect to America's demonstration of the Moab just before the 2003 invasion of Iraq - a demonstration never followed up by its actual use.

"The Russians are in a phase of needing to make statements at the moment and have done the same thing," Hewson says. The giant bomb was transported by a Tu-160 "Blackjack" supersonic bomber, itself in the news recently when Russia revived the Soviet practice of sending heavy bombers out on long-range flights.

First test-firing of new Indian nuclear-capable missile fails

The first test-firing of a new Indian missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads across much of Asia and the Middle East was unsuccessful, the defense minister said. Although initially reported as a success by officials, the Agni III missile plunged into the Bay of Bengal short of its target, Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee told reporters late Sunday. The launch came as U.S. President George W. Bush is trying to push a civilian nuclear deal with India through a skeptical U.S. Congress. The deal would permit India to keep making nuclear weapons without ratifying the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and critics say it could undermine the treaty.
Although the deal does not cover missiles, The Hindu newspaper reported Monday that American's top general, Peter Pace, gave Indian officials the green light to conduct the test when he visited India last month. The test had been reportedly delayed for two years by technical issues and fears of international condemnation. Mukherjee, who witnessed Sunday's test, said India would press ahead with the Agni III program. He termed the test failure a snag, but offered no other details. However, Indian media reported that the missile's second stage failed to separate after it was launched from Wheeler Island off the eastern state of Orissa. India's current crop of missiles have been largely intended to confront neighboring archrival Pakistan. The Agni III, in contrast, is India's longest-range missile, designed to reach 3,000 kilometers (1,900 miles) _ putting China's major cities well into range, as well as targets deep in the Middle East.
It's also said to be capable of carrying up to a 300 kiloton nuclear warhead."This is going to help in establishing the credibility of India's deterrent profile," said Indian defense analyst C. Uday Bhaskar. He dismissed speculation the missile was designed with China in mind. "Any strategic capability is not aimed at any particular nation. To say it is China-specific is misleading," Bhaskar said. India and China have shared decades of mutual suspicion and fought a 1962 border war. But relations have warmed considerably in recent years as the two Asian giants have boosted trade and economic ties. India's missile program, together with its nuclear program and drive for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, is part of its ongoing efforts to establish itself as a world power.
While past Indian missile test-firings were seen as attempts at saber-rattling with Pakistan, which would in turn test its own missiles, the Agni III test was seen as a routine step in furthering India's missile program, which aims at eventually producing a long-range ICBM. India's homegrown missile arsenal already includes the short-range Prithvi ballistic missile, the medium-range Akash, the anti-tank Nag and the supersonic Brahmos missile, developed jointly with Russia.India notified Pakistan ahead of the launch, in accordance with an agreement between the two nations, said Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Tasnim Aslam. India and Pakistan have fought three wars since they gained independence from Britain in 1947.

China builds model of Indian border 2400 km away

The discovery of what is considered a military establishment in China’s Northern plains by a Google Earth user from Germany has kicked up a storm on the Net’s strategic forums. Here’s why: The establishment, snapped from Google’s free satellite imagery software, houses a startlingly accurate scale model of a highly sensitive stretch of the disputed Sino-Indian border.
A careful study of the model, located at a large military complex in China’s Huangyangtan province, likely used for training and familiarisation of troops, helicopters and infantry vehicles, shows that it is built to scale based on a stretch 2,400 km away along the Aksai Chin area bordering Ladakh, part of the stretch through which invading Chinese forces entered in the 1962 war.
The facility, full with uncharacteristic and man-made snow peaks, glacial lakes and snow rifts—ironically in the middle of an arid plain—is flanked by a large military depot with buildings and at least a hundred military trucks.
The Army did not confirm that it was aware of the facility, but officially told The Indian Express, “Militaries are always known to simulate potential conflict zones as a standard practice. There is absolute peace and tranquility on the border with China, a disputed border that the two governments are resolving through peaceful dialogue. It is nothing alarming, these are standard training methodologies.”
Off the record, though, an officer currently with the Quarter Master General branch, but who has served along the border with Aksai Chin, said, “We knew that they had some facilities for this purpose but the scale and detail is something new to us.”
The sense is that economic development near the border and a quiet, but progressive peace dialogue to end the border dispute notwithstanding, the PLA is keeping its forces well in touch with potential conflict zones— especially Aksai Chin, strategically important to Beijing since it houses crucial road heads and Demchok, one of the principally disputed zones.
The image could be anything between six months and two years old, proving that training on disputed terrain is still very much part of the PLA’s war doctrine.

What Makes Eurofighter fly?

Saudi Arabia is buying 72 Eurofighter Typhoon jets from the UK in a deal that could be worth more than £6bn.

The order is a huge boost to BAE Systems, and is the latest development in a saga that has lasted more than two decades.

Why is this defence order so important to the UK?

The entire project has come in for huge criticism and the Eurofighter has had to fight off ferocious competition from the US and France to win export orders. The Saudi deal is proof that Eurofighter can win large orders in a tough market. BAE Systems is one of the four main contractors building Eurofighter, with partners in Germany, Italy and Spain. Thousands of high-tech jobs in Lancashire, where BAE Systems has its military aircraft division, will be safeguarded by the order. The area is home to dozens of small specialist engineering companies that supply parts and expertise to the BAE Systems plant at Warton, just outside of Preston. When the UK sold Tornado fighters to the Saudi air force in the 1980s, subsequent contracts for support and airfield infrastructure generated massive business for other UK companies in the defence and construction sectors. The Eurofighter order may herald a similar bonanza for UK companies.

So who else is buying the planes?

Eurofighter's first export success was a small order from Austria for 18 aircraft. But the company subsequently lost out in a competition to supply jets to the Singapore Air Force, fanning fears that it would struggle to sell. Now the huge Saudi order means other customers will feel more confident about buying the aircraft. Norway, Greece and Turkey are all being mentioned as possible future customers for the Eurofighter.

Why has the Eurofighter been so controversial?

The aircraft was conceived during the 1980s as a counter to the latest Russian fighters, but technical challenges and the end of the Cold War led to calls for its cancellation. As a result, the testing programme was delayed and the first prototype did not fly until 1994. Costs rose dramatically during the project and the UK's bill for buying 232 has soared from £7bn to an estimated £15bn. Critics argue that the UK's Royal Air Force (RAF) and its European allies no longer need a top of the range fighter. They point out that conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan require infantry and helicopters, not sophisticated fighter jets that will take up a huge chunk of the hard-pressed defence budget. Also, the RAF has struggled to get the aircraft into service and the initial deployment with the air forces of the four partner nations was repeatedly delayed.

So why is the UK pushing ahead with the Eurofighter?

Simply put, because the four partner nations need a fighter to replace existing aircraft. The RAF must replace aging Tornado F3 fighters, which defend UK airspace, and elderly Jaguar fighter-bombers, which support the army. These aircraft were designed in the 1960s and 1970s and have been in service for 20-35 years. And while the military threat from the Soviet Union no longer exists, Russia is selling its top-of-the-range fighters to many countries. At the same time, China is increasing its presence in the international fighter export market.

So is the Eurofighter any good?

Critics have suggested that the Eurofighter is only useful for air-to-air combat, and not for supporting troops on the ground. And they have complained that it was not designed to evade radar, like the latest generation of US stealth fighters. In fact the Eurofighter was designed from outset to be a fighter-bomber that could switch from dog-fighting in the air to attacking targets on the ground all during the same mission. Some observers have claimed that many criticisms of the fighter plane have come from US aerospace companies alarmed at the prospect of losing customers to the Eurofighter. Also, designing a fighter to be stealthy brings its own set of problems not least because stealth aircraft cannot carry out tight dogfight manoeuvres at high speed.

What makes it special?

The Eurofighter's engines, made by Rolls-Royce, give enormous power in relation to the aircraft's weight. This allows the Eurofighter to fly at supersonic speeds without burning excess fuel, a revolutionary feature in a modern fighter. The fighter jet is controlled by computers that feed instructions into the wings and tail far faster than a human pilot could manage, allowing the pilot to throw the plane around the sky and use entirely new tactics.

So what will be the Eurofighter's main competition?

The Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), which the US is developing in co-operation with the UK, is due to enter service after 2012. But this project has hit serious technical problems and is under threat in the US Congress. The US Air Force has already begun to take delivery of another superjet, the F-22 Raptor. This is very stealthy but costs twice the price of the Eurofighter, and reports suggest that RAF's Eurofighters have flown highly successful missions against the F-22 during recent exercises in the US. It also is competing with the French-made Rafale, which is very similar to the Eurofighter and may be on the UK's Royal Navy shopping list.

Diego Garcia : A real threat to Indian ocean countries

The US Naval Base Diego Garcia located in the center of Indian Ocean, is a real threat to the security of Countries around Indian Ocean. US created so much hue and cry when Russians established their military base near US mainland in Cuba, which is also known as "Cuban Missile Crisis". But why there is no cry heard when it is establishing its bases near other nations? US used this base to house B52's to attack Iraq during gulf war. Following is the article published in military.com giving its history.

Diego Garcia, British Indian Ocean Territory is located at 7 Degrees South Latitude, off the tip of India. Diego Garcia was discovered by Portuguese explorers in the early 1500s. It is the largest of fifty-two islands which form the Chagos Archipelago, located in the heart of the Indian Ocean. The island's name is believed to have come from either the ship's captain or the navigator on that early voyage of discovery.

A tropical footprint-shaped island just 7 degrees south of the equator, Diego Garcia is heavily vegetated. The island covers 6,720 acres in area with a maximum height of 22 feet and an average elevation of four feet above sea level. The shoreline is about 40 miles long and the island encloses a lagoon 6.5 miles wide and 13 miles long.

In 1965, with the formation of the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT), Diego Garcia was under the administrative control of the British government of the Seychelles. In 1976, the Seychelles gained independence from England and the BIOT became a self-administering territory under the East African Desk of the British Foreign Office. The Crown's representative on island, the British Representative (BRITREP), acts as both Justice of the Peace and Commanding Officer of the Royal Naval Party 1002.

Until 1971, Diego Garcia's main source of income was from the profitable copra oil plantation. At one time, copra oil from here and the other "Oil Islands" provided fine machine oil and fuel to light European lamps. During the roughly 170 years of plantation life, coconut harvests on Diego Garcia remained fairly constant, at about four million nuts annually. The plantation years ended with the arrival of the U.S. military construction.

On March 24, 1971 construction began on a U.S. Naval Communication Facility. This construction was accomplished by units of the U.S. Naval Construction Force (Seabees). Naval Communications Station Pre-commissioning Detachment arrived to prepare for operations in December of 1972 and on March 20, 1973 the U.S. Naval Communications Stations, Diego Garcia, was commissioned. The communications facility was later changed to Naval Computer and Telecommunication Station (NCTS) in October of 1991.

A major change to the island organizational structure occurred with the establishment of the Navy Support Facility (NSF) on October 1, 1977. Commanding Officer, NSF, assumed all duties and responsibilities previously assigned to the Island Commander. The nucleus for NSF came from the original Communication Station enlisted and officer allowances. All billets, other than those dedicated to communications support, were transferred to CO, NSF, who is responsible for maintaining and operating facilities and providing services and materials in support of several tenant shore activities and units of the operating forces. Following the overthrow of the Shah of Iran in 1979, Diego Garcia saw the most dramatic build-up of any location since the Vietnam War era. In 1986, Diego Garcia became fully operational with the completion of a $500 million construction program.

The 1990, Iraqi invasion of Kuwait marked the most intense operational period in Diego Garcia's history. From 1 August 1990 to 28 February 1991, NAVSUPPFAC Diego Garcia achieved and maintained the highest degree of operational readiness and provided levels of support which outstripped all contingency planning. As the base population doubled almost overnight, with the deployment of a Strategic Air Command Bombardment Wing and other aviation detachments, workload base-wide increased from 300-2000% over peacetime levels with no personnel augmentation. Diego Garcia became the only U.S. Navy base that launched offensive air operations during Operation Desert Storm and Diego Garcia remains a vital link in our defense structure.

India tests Trishul missile

The Trishul "quick-reaction" surface-to- air missile was again tested on 23rd July 2006, but just like its sister Akash missile it is still far from being inducted into the armed forces. The frequent time, cost, technical and operational slippages in the nine-km-range Trishul and 25-km-range Akash surface-to-air missile programs have meant that the country's air defence cover continues to have gaping holes.

Pakistan, in sharp contrast, has always accorded high priority to its air defence management, with its multi-tier surveillance cover, air defence fighters, quick-reaction, short-range missiles and an integrated control and reporting system. The Indian Armed Forces, however, continues to make do with its obsolete air defence systems, said an Asian Age report here today.

The IAF, for instance, has aging Pechora, Igla-1M and OSA-AK missile systems, and that, too, in woefully inadequate numbers. While Trishul was to replace its OSA-AK weapons system, Akash was meant as a substitute for Pechora. But both the Trishul and Akash air defence missile systems, which are part of the original Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme launched as far back as 1983, have been dogged by development snags in their "command guidance and integrated Ramjet rocket propulsion" systems.

Trishul, for instance, has been tested over 80 times so far without coming anywhere near becoming operational. It was, in fact, virtually given up for dead in 2003 after around Rs 300 crore was spent on it, before being revived yet again. Trishul's repeated failure, in fact, forced the Navy to go in for nine Israeli Barak anti-missile defence systems for its frontline warships, along with 200 Barak missiles, at a cost of Rs 1,510 crore during the 1999 Kargil conflict. The Navy is now inducting even more Barak systems due to Trishul's continued failure.

The Defence Research and Development Organization, for its part, contends the seven Trishul trials so far this year, including a flight test with enhanced range of 11.5km against a remotely piloted aircraft, have "met all mission objectives." Trishul can engage targets like aircraft and helicopter, flying between 300 meters and 500 meters, by using its radar command-to- line, of-sight guidance system, it says. The report card for Akash, tested 16 times since January 2005, is even better since it has completed all its development trials.

"On January 28 this year, interception of two moving targets by two Akash missiles with live warheads was successfully carried out," said an official. "Akash has multiple-target handling capacity with a digitally coded command guidance system. Its user trials are now in progress," he said. The missile's `Rajendra' radar, a multi-function phased array radar which carries out surveillance, target-tracking, missile acquisition and guidance, can simultaneously track several aircraft within a range of 40 to 60 kilometers.

Research and Analysis Wing

The Cabinet Secretariat Research and Analysis Wing [RAW], India's most powerful intelligence agency, is India’s external intelligence agency. RAW has become an effective instrument of India's national power, and has assumed a significant role in formulating India's domestic and foreign policies. RAW has engaged in disinformation campaigns, espionage and sabotage against Pakistan and other neighboring countries. RAW has enjoyed the backing of successive Indian governments in these efforts. Working directly under the Prime Minister, the structure, rank, pay and perks of the Research & Analysis Wing are kept secret from Parliament.

Current policy debates in India have generally failed to focus on the relative priority given by RAW to activities directed against India's neighbors versus attention to domestic affairs to safeguard India's security and territorial integrity. The RAW has had limited success in dealing with separatist movements in Manipur and Tripura in the northeast, Tamil Nadu in the south, and Punjab and Kashmir in the northwestern part of the country. Indian sources allege the CIA has penetrated freedom fighters in Kashmir and started activities in Kerala, Karnataka, and other places, along with conducting economic and industrial espionage activities in New Delhi.

In 1968 India established this special branch of its intelligence service specifically targeted on Pakistan. The formation of RAW was based on the belief that Pakistan was supplying weapons to Sikh terrorists, and providing shelter and training to the guerrillas in Pakistan. Pakistan has accused the Research and Analysis Wing of sponsoring sabotage in Punjab, where RAW is alleged to have supported the Seraiki movement, providing financial support to promote its activities in Pakistan and organizing an International Seraiki Conference in Delhi in November-December 1993. RAW has an extensive network of agents and anti-government elements within Pakistan, including dissident elements from various sectarian and ethnic groups of Sindh and Punjab. Published reports allege that as many as 35,000 RAW agents have entered Pakistan between 1983-93, with 12,000 are working in Sindh, 10000 in Punjab 8000 in North West Frontier Province and 5000 in Balochistan. As many as 40 terrorist training camps at Rajasthan, East Punjab, Held Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh and other parts of India are run by the RAW's Special Service Bureau (SSB).

Throughout the Afghan War RAW was responsible for the planning and execution of terrorist activities in Pakistan to deter Pakistan from support of Afghan liberation movement against India's ally, the Soviet Union. The assistance provided to RAW by the KGB enabled RAW to arrange terrorist attacks in Pakistani cities throughout the Afghan War. The defeat of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan did not end the role of RAW in Pakistan, with reports that suggest that India has established a training camp in the town of Qadian, in East Punjab, where non-Muslim Pakistanis are trained for terrorist activities. Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has blamed India for funding the current upsurge of terrorism in Pakistan, and senior ministers have blamed the Research and Analysis Wing for the sectarian violence between Shias and Sunnis which has resulted in thousands of deaths every year.

The Government of Pakistan frequently assigns responsibility for terrorist activity to the Indian Government, even when no evidence can be verified. It is evidently in the interest of the Pakistani government to blame terrorist actions on external rather than internal sources, just as it would be in the interest of Indian services to obscure their hand in such actions. Terrorist activities in Pakistan attributed to the clandestine activities of Indian and Afghan intelligence agencies include:

* A car bomb explosion in Saddar area of Peshawar on 21 December 1995 caused the deaths of 37 persons and injured over 50 others.
* An explosion at Shaukat Khanum Hospital on 14 April 1996, claimed the lives of seven persons and injured to over 34 others.
* A bus traveling from Lahore to Sahiwal was blown up at Bhai Pheru on 28 April 1996, causing the deaths of 44 persons on the spot and injuring 30 others.
* An explosion in a bus near the Sheikhupura hospital killed 9 persons and injured 29 others on 08 May 1996.
* An explosion near Alam chowk, Gujranwala on 10 June 1996 killed 3 persons and injured 11 others.
* A bomb exploded on a bus on GT Road near Kharian on 10 June 1996, killing 2 persons and injuring 10 others.
* On 27 June 1996, an explosion opposite Madrassah Faizul Islam, Faizabad, Rawalpindi, killed 5 persons and injured over 50 others.
* A bomb explosion in the Faisalabad railway station passenger lounge on 08 July 1996 killed 3 persons and injured 20 others.

RAW has responded to Pakistani arms and training for Muslim militants in the disputed region of Kashmir state. RAW allegedly executed a hijacking of an Indian Airliner to Lahore in 1971 which was attributed to the Kashmiris, to give a terrorist dimension to the Kashmiri national movement. However soon the extent of RAW's involvement was made public.

RAW has a long history of activity in Bangladesh, supporting both secular forces and the area's Hindu minority. The involvement of RAW in East Pakistan is said to date from the 1960s, when RAW promoted dissatisfaction against Pakistan in East Pakistan, including funding Mujibur Rahmanh's general election in 1970 and providing training and arming the Mukti Bahini.

During the course of its investigation the Jain Commission received testimony on the official Indian support to the various Sri Lankan Tamil armed groups in Tamil Nadu. From 1981, RAW and the Intelligence Bureau established a network of as many as 30 training bases for these groups in India. Centers were also established at the high-security military installation of Chakrata, near Dehra Dun, and in the Ramakrishna Puram area of New Delhi. This clandestine support to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), some of whom were on the payroll of RAW, was later suspended. Starting in late 1986 the Research and Analysis Wing focused surveillance on the LTTE which was expanding ties with Tamil Nadu separatist groups. Rajiv Gandhi sought to establish good relations with the LTTE, even after the Indian Peace Keeping Force [IPKF] experience in Sri Lanka. But the Indian intelligence community failed to accurately assess the character of the LTTE and its orientation India and its political leaders. The LTTE assassination of Rajiv Gandhi was apparently motivated by fears of a possible re-induction of the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) in Sri Lanka and a crackdown on the LTTE network in Tamil Nadu.

The RAW and the Ministry of External Affairs are provided Rs 25 crore annually as "discretionary grants" for foreign influence operations. These funds have supported organisations fighting Sikh and Kashmiri separatists in the UK, Canada and the US. An extensive network of Indian operatives is controlled by the Indian Embassy in Washington DC. The Indian embassy's covert activities are reported to include the infitration of US long distance telephone carriers by Indian operatives, with access to all kinds of information, to r blackmail relatives of US residents living in India. In 1996 an Indian diplomat was implicated in a scandal over illegal funding of political candidates in the US. Under US law foreign nationals are prohibited from contributing to federal elections. The US District Court in Baltimore sentenced Lalit H Gadhia, a naturalised US citizen of Indian origin, to three months imprisonment. Gadhia had confessed that he worked as a conduit between the Indian Embassy and various Indian-American organisations for funnelling campaign contributions to influence US lawmakers. Over $46,000 from the Indian Embassy was distributed among 20 Congressional candidates. The source of the cash used by Gadhia was Devendra Singh, a RAW official assigned to the Indian Embassy in Washington. Illicit campaign money received in 1995 went to Democratic candidates including Sens. Charles S. Robb (D-Va.), Paul S. Sarbanes (D -Md.) and Reps. Benjamin L. Cardin (D-Md.) and Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.).

Source : http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/world/india/raw.htm

India to offer military package to Maldives

As part of the overall strategy to provide military aid to Indian Ocean Region (IOR) countries, and prevent China from further spreading its influence in the region, India will hand over a small warship and other supplies to Maldives next month.

Defence minister Pranab Mukherjee will be travelling to Male in mid-April to "transfer" INS Tillanchang, a 260-tonne fast-attack craft commissioned in 2001, to Maldives.

The military package will also include Rs 6-crore for training, material and technical assistance. Moreover, an Indian Navy survey ship, INS Darshak, will conduct a hydrographic survey in the waters around Maldives.

INS Tillanchang, with a deployment range of 3,600-km, is designed for fast and covert operations against smugglers, gun-runners and terrorists. "Our country's central location within IOR makes us a major stake-holder in the security and stability of the region," said an officer.

India has taken several steps to build bridges with IOR nations, which range from joint patrols with Indonesian and Sri Lankan navies and exercises with Singapore and Oman to providing seaward security for international summits in Mozambique.

Maldives constitutes an important part of this strategy since China is making persistent moves in the region as part of its military diplomacy. China, in fact, plans to establish a full-fledged naval base in Marao, one of the islands of Maldives, by 2010.

India has always been willing to help Maldives in times of crisis. Indian paratroopers and naval warships, for instance, were rushed to Maldives in November 1988 by the Rajiv Gandhi government under Operation Cactus to thwart the coup attempt against the Abdul Gayoom government.

North Korea's Missile Ploy: No Good Options

To say that the Bush Administration is exasperated by North Korea's provocations is an understatement. After all, the only thing worse than watching a charter member of President Bush's "Axis of Evil" thumb its nose at the international community, is not having an effective means to respond. And despite all the tough talk emanating out of Washington, the U.S. has few good options for responding to the latest bit of saber-rattling from the hermit Stalinist regime in Pyongyang, this time involving an all-too-real saber: A Taepodong 2 long-range missile, capable of hitting Alaska and Japan, which North Korea appears to be shaping up to test-fire.

Such a test would end a moratorium on missile testing the North Korea adopted in 1998 to create confidence in six party talks over its nuclear program. But with those talks stalled since last November over widely differing interpretations between Washington and Pyongyang over what had been agreed, North Korea appears inclined to reclaim the spotlight from Iran by reminding the international community that left untended, it can cause plenty of trouble.

But if the North Koreans are engaged in political theater with missiles, the U.S. may have decided to respond in kind. U.S. officials reportedly acknowledged Tuesday that Washington's multi-billion-dollar missile defense system has been made operational in the past two weeks, despite the fact that that the system — whose record even in tests rigged in its favor has been so dismal that testing was eventually suspended — has yet to prove capable of actually doing its job. That gesture seemed to sum up the Administration's dilemma: Its policies to pressure North Korea to desist from bad behavior have simply not worked. And now North Korea is raising the stakes.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stressed that a missile test would be a provocation. "I can assure everyone that it would be taken with utmost seriousness," she warned, although she did not specify what consequence might result. The U.S. would consult with its allies on the next step, she said. Those other parties to the talks certainly share the U.S. alarm at the prospect of a North Korea test — Japan warned that if the missile fell on its territory, it would be regarded as an attack (although it later softened that position), while South Korea urged its neighbor not to "put a friend in danger" by firing a missile, and China called for calm. But it's not clear that any possible consequences would substantially alter North Korea's cost-benefit analysis.

Western economic sanctions mean comparatively little to an economy already largely isolated; and the two countries on which Pyongyang substantially depends, China and South Korea, have long made clear that they have no intention of putting a serious economic squeeze on Pyongyang, for fear that it would topple the regime and spread chaos across the Korean peninsula. Still, China values its ties with the U.S., even as that relationship becomes strained by geopolitical conflicts of interest, and it is therefore reportedly furious at North Korea's tactics. Quiet pressure from Beijing may be the best bet for restraining the North Koreans, but even that is far from a sure thing.

The most perceptive warning, however, may have come from Australia: "North Korea would be gravely mistaken if it thinks that a missile test would improve its bargaining position in the six-party talks," said foreign minister Alexander Downing. If brinkmanship is his game — and the pattern of previous North Korean tactics suggests that the missile threat may indeed be a negotiating ploy as much as anything else — North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il may also be aware that actually going ahead with a missile test (rather than simply dangling the threat of doing so) could weaken rather than strengthen his bargaining position. That's because North Korea has profited diplomatically from the view in Beijing and Seoul that the impasse in the six-party process is as much a result of the Bush Administration's hard line as of Pyongyang's recalcitrance.

A missile test could destroy South Korea's strategy of engagement with the North, and force China to distance itself from Pyongyang, dashing any hope of a breakthrough that would improve the regime's prospects of reviving its sclerotic economy. Kim Jong-il may, however, believe that a missile test will create a crisis that will, as it has repeatedly since 1994, force the great powers to deal with North Korea in ways that ultimately reward his brinkmanship. With the volatile fuel reportedly already in the rockets, it may be a matter of days before the answer is known.